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The chaotic nature of climate in general
and the unknowns concerning climate change presents a
challenge for modeling and prediction of future global warming however in
the short term some events are predictable and other events are tentative
at best.
> Earth's surface will
continue to warm up with the poles experiencing the greatest rates of
change
> sea levels will rise due to the expansion of warmer water and the
melting of the polar ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet
> millions of human habitations will be flooded ecological migration will
surpass opportunistic migration
> great portions of the Marshal Islands, Florida, and Bangladesh will be
submerged
> species will be imperiled that are unable to move to suitable locations
> disruptions to ecosystems will exacerbate the demise of species
> northern forests will become stressed
> insect pest and disease pathogens will move into ecosystems that cold
weather excluded
> climate changes will force some arable land out of utility and allow
other areas to become arable
> droughts cause forest fires and famines
> oceanic current changes will disrupt marine ecosystems and threaten
already stressed coral reefs as well as change the moderating it has on
Northern areas of Europe
> new habitat will become available others lost ...... time
marches on
> weather chaos .............. more powerful tornadoes and hurricanes
Possibility of Positive Feedback Systems
Gradual changes
sound comforting (it won't happen in my
generation) but consider the following possibilities
- the amount of snow declines globally causing the albedo (reflectance) to
increase (approach 1) , this will allow more solar heat to be trapped on
the surface
- frozen methane in the Arctic ice is released during melts the methane
contributes to the Greenhouse Effect
- northern peat bogs begin to thaw and decompose anaerobically releasing
methane .....
- draughts in many areas increase the probability of forest fires that
release CO2
- humans use more air con. to stay cool and release more
CO2
in electric power generation
Possibility of Negative Feedback Systems
- increased water vapour and clouds reflect solar energy back to space
- humans make wise choices and ratify Kyoto Protocols that limit the CO2
production of nations (tearing up
Kyoto Protocols
were the first thing
GW Bush did
upon assuming office of
US
president in 2001)
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